Ceres Simulation
This is a simulation of what one would expect to find on a terraformed Ceres, using formulas from Math And Terraforming. Please note that not even the supercomputers at NASA can provide us with a perfect simulation. The information showed here is only an approximation. Basic data *Distance from Sun: 414.01 million km *Diameter: 946 km *Solar Constant: 0.258 *Mass: 0.00015 Earths *Mean density: 2.161 kg/l *Orbital period: 1362 Earth days *Day length: 0.3781 Earth days *Rotation axial tilt: 11 degrees Atmosphere See Atmosphere Parameters Ceres has very low gravity, but is it able to actually hold an atmosphere? Let's find out. During this simulation, we will use an atmosphere with the same pressure at sea level as Earth's and a similar composition. *Atmosphere stability for oxygen molecules: **Earth's gravity (15 degrees C): 4.116 **Ceres's gravity (15 degrees C): 91.56 **Ceres's gravity (-75 degrees C): 62.96 *Atmosphere stability for water molecules: **Earth's gravity (15 degrees C): 7.320 **Ceres's gravity (15 degrees C): 162.8 **Ceres's gravity (-75 degrees C): 111.9 *Atmosphere stability for hydrogen molecules: **Earth's gravity (15 degrees C): 65.88 **Ceres's gravity (15 degrees C): 1465 **Ceres's gravity (-75 degrees C): 1007 notes: A value below 10 means stability for over a million years, a value between 10 and 100 means stability between 0.1 and 10 millions of years, while a value higher then 100 means stability for less then 10 thousand years. This calculation does not include solar wind erosion. Conclusion: Ceres could host oxygen for a thousand years, but not water vapors. Water will escape very fast, because of the low gravity. Hydrogen is created when ionizing radiation (like ultraviolet) breaks apart water molecules. The hydrogen molecular speed in the atmosphere will be greater then the escape velocity. The atmosphere will look like this: *Surface pressure at sea level: 1 For surface temperature = 15: *Atmosphere total mass (Earth = 1): 0.69 *Atmosphere breathable height: 457 km *Atmosphere total height: 1630 km For surface temperature = -75: *Atmosphere total mass (Earth = 1): 0.54 *Atmosphere breathable height: 402 km *Atmosphere total height: 1196 km As we can see, the atmosphere of Ceres will be higher then the planet's diameter. At that distance, gravitational force is far smaller (less then 1/4). The lack of gravity will force the atmosphere to extend further and further away. As a direct result, the atmosphere will not be sustainable even for a human lifetime. Conclusion: Ceres is unable to hold an atmosphere. Temperature Main article: Temperature. The first problem with Ceres is that we need to increase its temperature by adding Greenhouse Gases. The Greenhouse Calculator offers some useful formulas. We will need one of the following: *CO2: 1157 kg/square meter or *Sulfur hexafluoride: 0.0484 kg/square meter. However, because maintaining an atmosphere is impossible, this calculation is useless. Climate Simulation Main article: Climate. The only way we can terraform Ceres is Global paraterraforming, encasing it in a large planetary dome. The dome needs to resist meteorite impacts, needs to be elastic (to resist dilation and contraction of materials during day-night temperature changes) and to weight enough or to be well anchored in the ground, to resist atmospheric pressure. Suppose the global dome will be 10 km above surface and that air will freely circle beneath, we can calculate climate patterns: Average temperatures for each latitude: Simulation for equinox: *poles: 14.5 C *75 deg: 14.9 C *60 deg: 15.1 C *45 deg: 15.2 C *30 deg: 15.4 C *15 deg: 15.4 C *equator: 15.5 C Simulation for winter solstice: *poles: 14.5 C *75 deg: 14.7 C *60 deg: 15.0 C *45 deg: 15.1 C *30 deg: 15.3 C *15 deg: 15.4 C *equator: 15.5 C Simulation for summer solstice: *poles: 14.8 C *75 deg: 15.1 C *60 deg: 15.2 C *45 deg: 15.3 C *30 deg: 15.4 C *15 deg: 15.5 C *equator: 15.5 C Day - night cycle variation: *Daily temperature variation: 0.8 degrees C *Equator day-night variations: **During equinox: 15.1 to 15.9 degrees C **During solstice: 15.1 to 15.9 degrees C *45 degrees latitude day-night variations: **During equinox: 14.8 to 15.6 degrees C **During winter solstice: 14.7 to 15.5 degrees C **During summer solstice: 14.9 to 15.7 degrees C Seasons: Ceres has a small axial tilt (11 degrees). Because of this, some seasons are expected to occur. However, because of its small size, air currents will mix very fast different areas. The direct result is that Ceres will actually not sense temperature differences. Other factors: Because of the small gravity, atmospheric pressure will vary little with altitude. At the dome (10 km high), pressure decrease will be like on Earth at 183 m high. Because speed of water molecules in the atmosphere will be close to the escape velocity, water will find its way fast to the global dome. There, during night, water will condense and might even freeze on the dome walls. In the morning, it will rain, as the water starts to melt. Given the short length of a day on Ceres, it is questionable if enough water will get condensed to form a rain that will actually reach the surface. Conclusion. There will not be significant day-night or seasonal temperature variations. Also, between the equator and the poles, there will not be significant changes. The climate of Ceres will be a monoclime. With temperatures not oscillating too much, the atmosphere will get saturated with water vapors. It will be a climate like on an Outer Planet, not very attractive for settlers. Geography See also: Geography and Geographic Pattern - Craters. Ceres has its whole surface covered with craters. Still, there are higher and lower areas on the planet, that will allow us to create continents and oceans. Oceans. Ceres might have 3 larger oceans with many islands inside, but also many more endorheic lakes and seas, formed inside craters. It will not be so difficult to build a network of canals, to allow us connect remote basins. It appears that Ceres has a subsurface ocean. Well, it is not quite an ocean, but a mixture of hydrated clays and brine water. It might be needed to bring water from somewhere else. However, many salts might get mixed in the new water, resulting a very salt ocean. Rivers. Without significant rain, it is questionable if Ceres will form rivers. If they will form, they will have spectacular waterfalls, as they flow off crater rims. The little gravity will make rivers flow very slow. Continents. There will be a single, massive continent in North, extending to South. This continent will have many lakes and will extend to the oceans with many peninsulas. Narrow strips of land will separate gulfs and endorheic water basins. Mountains. Ceres has a small mountain that rises about 3000 km high, but the highest terrain is made by crater rims. However, climate will not be different on the mountains then it is at low altitude. The Sky Simulation shows that Ceres will have a wet atmosphere, with many clouds and hazes. Probably, settlers will have rare opportunities to see a blue sky. Still, when this will happen or when people will come out from the dome, they will see the sky as follows: *The Sun will appear 3.36 units wide (like an object 3.36 mm wide will appear if you look from a distance of 1 m, see Angular Size for details). *Mercury will have a Magnitude of 1.7 to 2.3. *Venus will have a magnitude of -1.4 to -0.3. *Earth will have a magnitude of -0.5 to 1.1. *Moon will have a magnitude of 3.4 to 5.0. *Mars will have a magnitude of 3.4 to 5.0. *Jupiter will have a magnitude of -1.5 to 1.1. *Saturn will have a magnitude of 2.1 to 3.5 (ring phase not calculated). Human Colonies *Population limit: 35 million *Land population feeding capacity: 39 people fed from one square km *Largest city supported by environment: 140 000 people Assuming it will have similar types of terrain Earth will have, Ceres can support a Population Limit of 35 million people. Because of its small size, Ceres will be unable to support too many inhabitants. Industry Ceres has some important natural resources, including various salts that would be required for terraforming other celestial bodies. Salts that will not be sold can be used by local industrial corporations. Solar power is still available at the orbit of Ceres. Agriculture Main article: Plants on new worlds. Ceres can support green plants. There is enough light for agriculture. The little planet could provide food for mining and industrial colonies in the asteroid Belt. After all, Ceres is the goddess of agriculture and it should be no surprise if Ceres will have agriculture as its main economy branch. With little gravity and high humidity, plants will grow faster. they will have all water they need and will not need strong branches. Transportation It could be possible to build roads and railways on the surface of Ceres, but because of the low gravity, vehicles will have difficulties remaining on tracks. Air transport could be an option, but airplanes must be careful not to break the dome. Another approach is the build a global network of funicular lines, that will be used to transport both passengers and cargo. Ceres has suitable orbits for geostationary satellites. In addition, the Ceres Space Station will handle interplanetary traffic, avoiding destruction of the dome. Then, special ships can pass through an airlock inside the dome. Tourism Ceres will not have friendly climate, but a very wet one. So, it will not be so pleasant for tourists. Still, who will come here? In future, people born in low or no gravity and who spent all their lives in low gravity, will find it impossible to live on a planet with like Earth or Mars (see Future races for details). These people will spend most of their lives indoors. Ceres will offer them a chance to see what life outdoors is. Even people from large planets like Earth or Mars will find Ceres interesting. Someone who weight 70 kg on Earth, will weight only 1.93 kg on Ceres. In such conditions, you can walk on water or fly with artificial wings. Wild Life Ceres will have a wet monoclime. Many plants and animals from temperate regions will adapt to this. However, given the huge costs of building a global dome, it will be more likely that the surface of Ceres will be used for agriculture, to feed mining and working colonies in the Asteroid Belt. Still, it is a significant chance that on the surface of Ceres there will be recreation parks and small reservations for wild life. Category:Simulation Category:Math